The Eggapocalypse

Eggs are a staple in American households, essential to many of the foods we consume. They’re hard to avoid, as they’re a key ingredient in countless foods. Some people eat eggs daily, as they are a rich source of protein, especially popular among fitness enthusiasts.

Epidemic in the Henhouse

Many people who do not understand basic supply and demand are politicizing the issue, blaming both Biden and Trump. However, the issue is stemming from a rapid spread of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, aka bird flu.

Hen depopulation has to a drastic reduction in egg-laying hen population, resulting in limited availability – forcing retailers to raise prices to slow demand.

During the past 3 years, bird flu has been reported in more than 145 million birds across 618 counties and all 50 states according to CDC data as of January 24th, 2025. The USDA has reported that the virus has killed 23 million egg laying hens between November 2024 to January 2025 – making up nearly 50% of all birds killed by the virus in 2024. If a single chicken in the flock tests positive for avian flu, the entire flock must be culled for safety reasons.

Current prices have been implemented to slow consumer demand as hen depopulation continues to ramp up due to the outbreak across the nation – leading to supply chain disruptions driving prices to unprecedented highs.

Shell-shocking Price Explosion

Eggs have now become a high commodity for many in the U.S. right now. Prices have skyrocketed since last November following an increase of more than 40% between 2020 – 2022.

The sharp rise in prices and limited availability in stores are putting a significant strain on families. It’s the 2020 toilet paper shortage all over again. Consumer anxiety has sparked panic purchasing including instances of hoarding, freezing and black market resales like an egg cartel.

Site visitors have reported egg shortages around the nation: Aldi, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Costco, Lidl, Sprouts, Farmer’s Market, Target, Trader Joe’s, Walmart, and Wegmans. In many areas, the price of a dozen eggs has risen to $6-$8 or more. Further price increases are expected for meat and poultry due to continued avian flu impacts.

Since November, costs have skyrocketed, compounding previous increases. Retailers struggle to maintain stock as avian flu outbreaks decimate hen populations – forcing price hikes and rationing to curb demand. Many businesses are scrambling to rethink sourcing, pricing and, menus. Some eateries, like Waffle House and Denny’s – have even introduced an egg surcharge.

Grocers have implemented egg-buying policies, limiting customers to 1 dozen eggs per day. Signs are popping up everywhere to ensure that customers who need eggs are able to purchase them. Some businesses like bakeries, cake mix and cookie dough producers, and dairy producers require a lot of eggs. Sometimes an entire pallet of eggs is completely bare within 10 minutes of being brought out to the shop floor.

Videos are going viral on social media showing shoppers loading their carts with cartons of eggs and brawling in the aisles, reminiscent of Black Friday chaos.

The USDA forecasts egg prices will increase by nearly 20% in 2025, reflecting a smaller laying flock and lower lay rates.

The latest monthly consumer price index showed that the average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in U.S. cities reached $4.95 in January, eclipsing the previous record of $4.82 set two years earlier and more than double the low of $2.04 recorded in August 2023:

The current spike in egg prices is the biggest since the nation’s last bird flu outbreak in 2015 and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the total increase in food costs last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told Newsweek:

Stephen Dombroski, director of consumer markets at supply chain solutions company QAD, told Newsweek:

Food industry experts suggest, in the best-case scenario, without any further outbreaks, it may take over 9 months for the replacement hens to produce eggs that make it to grocery store shelves.

Other contributing factors include:

• The supply disruption is exacerbated by the months-long farm cleanup and restocking process.
• Increased feed, fuel, and labor costs due to inflation.
• Biosecurity investments by farmers.
• State laws mandating cage-free egg production, which tightens supply.
• Rising consumer demand and the growth of all-day breakfast restaurants.

Grim Outlook

Relief is not expected any time soon. Egg prices typically spike around Easter due to high holiday demand. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted last month that egg prices were likely to go up 20% this year.

Sutton-Vermeulen, principal in the agriculture and food practice of Kearney, a global strategy and management consulting firm – told USA TODAY:

Biosecurity detection systems have also picked up the virus in poultry plants where animals are slaughtered and enter food supply chains.

The flu can spread through wild birds, poultry, cows, and other animals. The virus is said to be spreading to dairy cows across 16 states since March 2024 according to the USDA, reducing milk production and potentially triggering surges in the price of meat in the coming weeks and months. Experts say the current U.S. outbreak is unlikely to end without intervention, with further mutation of the virus likely.

While bird flu has spread to other animals and some humans, the risk to the general public remains low, and properly cooked eggs and poultry are safe to eat.

The price of meat and poultry is also expected to go up by 12% this year. Indirectly, this has caused bacon and gasoline prices to increase.

Potential Solutions

The following are some strategies that are being used to address egg shortages and Avian Flu Impact:

• Consumer Education & Demand Management:

Launch public awareness campaigns to promote responsible egg consumption and reduce panic buying.

Encourage consumers to consider alternatives and educate them on the benefits of moderation.

• Promote egg Alternatives:

Advocate for plant-based egg substitutes and alternative proteins.

Invest in the development of alternative protein sources that can replace eggs in certain food applications.

Invest in research and development of alternative protein sources to diversify the food supply and reduce reliance on eggs.

• Diversification of the Food Supply Chain:

Strengthen the food supply chain by reducing reliance on single commodities and fostering a more resilient system.

• Enhanced Biosecurity Measures:

Implement stricter biosecurity protocols on poultry farms to minimize the spread of avian flu.

Increase flock monitoring and testing to detect outbreaks early, and develop rapid diagnostic tools for swift intervention.

Enforce quarantine measures and implement rapid depopulation of infected flocks to contain outbreaks.

Invest in modern, biosecure poultry housing that reduces disease transmission.

• Poultry Health & Welfare:

Adopt best practices for poultry health and welfare to ensure the safety and resilience of flocks.

Develop and implement effective vaccination programs for poultry to prevent the spread of avian flu.

• Encourage Localized Egg Production:

Promote smaller-scale, localized egg production to reduce dependence on large industrial farms.

Support backyard poultry farming and community-supported agriculture to diversify sources of eggs.

• Research into Avian Flu Resistance:

Fund research into developing avian flu-resistant poultry breeds to enhance flock resilience and reduce the impact of future outbreaks.

• Enhanced Disease Surveillance:

Establish robust national and international disease surveillance networks to monitor and detect outbreaks early.

Develop predictive models to forecast potential avian flu outbreaks and take proactive measures.

• Global Cooperation & Information Sharing:

Encourage global collaboration and the sharing of information to strengthen international efforts in combating avian flu and other animal diseases.

Conclusion

This is the most severe outbreak in the nation’s history, steadily worsening, and is likely here to stay. H5N1 has now become endemic, taking up permanent residence in the U.S.

Concerns are being raised about the lack of public communication from federal health agencies, including the FDA, CDC, and NIH, regarding the avian flu situation. This suspension of information sharing may hinder public understanding of the risks and the extent of the crisis. Some suggest this lack of transparency indicates a potentially serious and rapidly escalating situation.

We hope this post was helpful in understanding the current U.S. egg crises. We invite your thoughts on this matter.